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Skipped Showers, Paper Plates: An Arizona Suburb’s Water Is Cut Off

For hundreds of Arizona homeowners, the American dream has become a climate-driven nightmare. A fierce competition for water amidst decades of drought has left residents of upscale Rio Verde without running taps. What is your half-million-dollar home really worth when your toilets are flushed with rainwater and you’re eating off paper plates?

“Is it just a campground now?” one resident asked The New York Times. The answer might be yes. As one of her first acts, new Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs unsealed a report concluding Phoenix’s fast-growing West Valley is well short of the 100-year supply of water required by law — a revelation throwing tens of thousands of planned homes into doubt.

“It’s a cautionary tale for home buyers,” Arizona State University’s Sarah Porter told the Times. “We can’t just protect every single person who buys a parcel and builds a home. There isn’t enough money or water.”

Clearly, the calculus for home builders and buyers alike has changed. Proper due diligence not only requires developable land or proximity to schools, but also secure supplies of fresh water and related climate adaptation measures. Visit www.climatealpha.ai to learn more about how our tools can help home builders — and soon, home buyers — incorporate these factors into future planning.

#climaterisks #megadrought #climateadaptation #extremeheat #watermanagement

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Fed Banks Stress Test for Physical Transitional Risks

The Federal Reserve’s mandate for America’s largest financial institutions to submit their plans for addressing climate risks now has a deadline: July 31. Six banks — Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo — are required by then to disclose how climate disasters such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and other extreme weather will impact portfolios.

Banks have always stress-tested their assets to determine how financial shocks might ripple through their holdings. The Fed’s new “pilot climate scenario analysis exercise” takes this a step further with a specific climate wargaming exercise set in the northeastern United States, and a more general analysis of how the unfolding energy transition to renewables might leave their balance sheets full of stranded assets such as coal mines or natural gas plants.

These disclosures address both sides of the risk coin: “physical risks” — climate risks tied directly to property, assets, and people — and “transition risks” arising from increasingly rapid decarbonization and the sunsetting of formerly lucrative fossil fuel infrastructure. The latter sends the signal that despite Chairman Jerome Powell’s insistence that “We are not, and will not be, a ‘climate policymaker,’” the Fed is serious about parsing the implications of 2021’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and last year’s Inflation Reduction Act.  

“This requirement is notable for several reasons, most specifically through the inclusion of transition risk,” says Michael Ferrari, chief scientific officer and chief commercial officer of Climate Alpha. “Addressing climate-related risks requires both mitigation and adaptation. With transition risks in the conversation, we can start to have serious discussions about the adaptation measures,” he adds.

Also notable is the Fed’s decision to model physical risks in a specific region prone to sea-level rise, hurricanes, and other disasters. Understanding how a singular event — such as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in lower Manhattan — might unfold in terms of immediate damage to infrastructure and real estate, followed by longer-term outward migration and declines in both economic growth and tax revenues, requires new tools combining both climate- and socio-economic variables.

“Modelling scenarios through 2050 is necessary, and mitigation measures need to increase, but these do not go far enough,” says Ferrari. “As we watch the frequency and severity of climate disruptions mount in real time, investors and regulators need new and better tools to understand consequences. This is why the adaptation requirement, which is so important, is starting to get the attention it deserves.”

As the first company of its kind to employ machine-learning techniques to combine hundreds of socioeconomic, demographic and market indicators with multiple climate scenarios, Climate Alpha stands alone in offering both the Fed and America’s biggest banks sufficiently complex forecasts of our climate-driven future.

“Climate Alpha is uniquely positioned to not only help large institutions, but all lenders, investors, risk managers, and property owners and buyers prepare for – and sensibly deploy capital under – the backdrop of future climate driven volatility,” Ferrari adds.

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Climate Data Startups Take Science Off Campus and Into Boardrooms

Bloomberg Green’s Eric Roston names Climate Alpha a startup to watch in Bloomberg Businessweek’s annual Year Ahead issue. “As climate science has moved out of the lab, private companies and nonprofits offering insights to decision-makers have proliferated, and demand for useful information will only grow in 2023,” he writes, noting roughly $375 million in VC and PE investment flowed into the sector during the first three quarters of 2022 alone. (Climate Alpha closed its own $4 million seed round in Q4.) 

“Climate science is in an awkward teenage phase,” says Kelly Hereid, director of catastrophe R&D at Liberty Mutual Insurance Co. “The next step is thinking not just about how the climate is going to change, but how that’s going to affect society.”

Exactly. As the only company of its kind combining migration and socio-economic variables with climate models, we’re uniquely positioned to help our customers understand the second- and third-order effects of a changing climate — starting with pockets of resilient geographies that were previously overlooked. Visit www.climatealpha.com to learn more about how our tools are already informing decision-makers in finance, real estate, insurance and government on what lies ahead in 2023 — and beyond.

#climatetech #climaterisks #climatescience #climateadaptation

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Resilient Cities Run on Climate Alpha

City and county public officials have a historic opportunity to invest in climate adaptation efforts ranging from planting trees to water conservation efforts to relocating vulnerable facilities. But where should they start?

Climate Alpha can help. Our Resilience Index™ offers a comprehensive dashboard of climate risk, vulnerability, and readiness scores for all 40,000+ US zip codes and 3,000 counties. We’re proud to announce special offers for city managers eager to assess risks, map hazards, and design adaptation strategies. Simply create a Climate Alpha account to receive complimentary headline scores, along with heavily discounted access to underlying datasets and indicator explanations.

Armed with these, officials might also leverage the Resilience Index to:

  1. Strategically allocate resilience grants from the federal government
  2. Reform urban and rural land-use policies
  3. Identify relocation sites for public and private facilities
  4. Conduct scenario-based exercises to prepare for extreme disruptions

Visit www.climatealpha.ai/cities to learn more about our special pricing for cities, or visit one of our partners. Mastercard City Possible members receive an exclusive discount code located under the Climate Alpha app in the Insights Marketplace, while Statebook customers will find Resilience Index™ scores integrated into their dashboards.

Together, we’re empowering cities to better understand the risks they face and how to optimally address them. A climate crisis is a terrible thing to waste.    

#climateadaptation #InflationReductionAct #resilience #landuse #managedretreat

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Which “Zoomtowns” are Tomorrow’s Boomtowns?

Which cities possess the right combination of resilience, quality of life, plentiful housing, and accessibility to a major metro (and points beyond)?

Using Climate Alpha’s proprietary Resilience Index™ scores and forecasting tools, we’ve identified five communities across the U.S. poised to reap the long-term benefits of a remote future, ranging from cities such as Portland, Oregon and Colorado Springs to greener pastures in Michigan, Virginia, and Kentucky.

 

 

 

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El Niño Is Coming—and the World Isn’t Prepared

After the hottest year on a record — a year in which heat waves scorched Europe and rivers evaporated; a year in which once again shattered the record for insurable losses due to natural catastrophes — what if the worst is still to come?

That’s because we’ve had it easy the last few years, with cool Pacific waters (“La Niña”) moderating global temperature rise by a crucial few tenths of a degree. But with ocean currents set to flip back to the better-known El Niño, we could see heat records shattered once again, argues Bill McGuire, author of “Hothouse Earth: An Inhabitant’s Guide.”

The result? Renewed droughts, falling crop yields, and higher food prices — which in turn fuel political unrest. Falling lake- and river levels in the American West threaten the hydro-electric dams California’s grid depends on. And warmer waters mean bigger hurricanes.

How these developments play out remains to be seen. But we can start to strategize now. Climate Alpha’s patent-pending scenario forecaster offers clients the ability to stress-test regions and real estate portfolios under conditions worse than even the most extreme effects modeled by the IPCC.

Visit www.climatealpha.ai to learn more about how our AI-driven suite of tools is uniquely prepared to map the complexity of a climate-stressed future — and the opportunities others may miss.

#lanina #elnino #extremeheat #climaterisks #climateadaptation

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The First Microgrid Communities in California

KB Home has launched America’s first all-electric, solar-powered micro-grid neighborhoods at its master-planned community in California’s Inland Empire.

Designed in partnership with the US Department of Energy, SunPower, the University of California at Irvine, Southern California Edison, Schneider Electric, and Kia, each home boasts EV charger-ready wiring and batteries connected to a local smart grid.

It’s a win-win for all involved, as residents benefit from a potential 40% reduction in energy use while worrying less about more frequent blackouts. And for homebuilders like KB Home, the combination of rising interest rates, single-family rentals, and zero-energy ready home standards has made it easier than ever to build new, more resilient housing at scale. The only question is where.

And that’s where Climate Alpha comes in. For developers and homebuilders, our suite of analytics can not only identify the optimal regions for homes powered by renewables, but also calculate the risk-adjusted valuations out to 2040 that will help justify these investments in the present.

Visit www.climatealpha.ai to learn more about how our tools will help found the resilient communities of tomorrow.

#realestate #climateadaptation #microgrids #ZERH #SFR #MPC

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Amid drought, Arizona contemplates a fraught idea: Piping in water from Mexico

Start the new year right with a jawdropping dispatch from our #climateadaptation future:

An Israeli-led group of private investors has made an unsolicited offer to build the world’s largest desalination plant on the Gulf of California to supply south- and central Arizona with 1 million acre-feet of water — an amount roughly equal to what the regions drew from the parched Colorado River last year.

The catch? Transporting the water would require 200-mile pipelines across an international border, through a U.S. national monument (and international biosphere reserve), and disrupt the salinity of one of the world’s most diverse aquatic ecosystems.

The other catch? The group — which is backed in part by Goldman Sachs — wants a pledge from the state of Arizona to buy the water at an unspecified price, which could run to billions of dollars per year. Despite this uncertainty, the state’s Water Infrastructure Finance Authority unanimously voted in December to approve a non-binding resolution to continue studying the proposal, which would be financed entirely with private money.

The lesson? No matter how severe the heat and drought gripping the southwest United States, climate science isn’t destiny. Novel combinations of technology, finance, private investment, and public infrastructure will emerge in response to the pressures facing the region — some more effective than others.

That’s where Climate Alpha comes in. While others focus purely on climate risks, our Resilience Index™ incorporates infrastructure, public spending, and other socio-economic factors for every Zip code in the country — underscoring the uneven geography of the future.

Visit www.climatealpha.ai to learn more about the index, our patent-pending scenario forecaster, and other tools for exploring how, say, the sudden appearance of the world’s largest desalination plant might alter your real estate’s future.

 #climaterisks #extremeheat #heatwaves #megadrought 

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When Housing Is for Locals Only, the Whole Country Suffers

“Exclusionary zoning harms the entire nation,” the editors of Bloomberg write. “It relegates the excluded to places with little opportunity and unhealthy living conditions. It aggravates global warming by redirecting population to car-dependent exurbs and relatively energy-intensive locales in the South and Midwest. It makes house prices and rents in desirable locations unaffordable for the typical family — which, in turn, stunts economic growth by preventing people from living where their talents can best be applied.”

These are excellent points, to which we would add another: it prevents new housing from being built America’s most climate resilient regions. Densifying existing cities is not enough — they can’t absorb all of the millions of new units necessary, when water supplies and other stresses are taken into account.

Which destinations have the right combination of affordability, sustainability, and amenities for tomorrow’s generations, and how do we begin clearing the ground for them now?

Climate Alpha’s suite of tools — starting with our Resilience Index™ scores for every U.S. county and our Climate Price™ risk-adjusted real valuations — help investors target the pockets of opportunity where it’s right to build. And where they have the right to build. Visit www.climatealpha.ai to learn more how our tools can help you navigate the intersection of economics, climate, and policy.

#nimbyism #yimby #zoning #resilience #affordability

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What Extreme Weather Events Are Doing to Global Insurance Markets

As reinsurers such as Lloyd’s of London and Swiss Re reprice the risk of climate catastrophes following another year of record-breaking year of insurable losses, what role will insurance and reinsurance play in real estate and site selection going forward?

Appearing on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast, Artemis.bm owner and Reinsurance News found Steve Evans mused about the potential impacts of government-mandated climate risk exposure. 

“If you start to disclose that kind of thing and your shareholders are seeing these potential big negative numbers on your balance sheet — even if they don’t manifest it’s still something that really any sensible business owner should be taking steps to protect against. So, there’s also potentially going to be more demand [for insurance] that comes out of climate legislation as well.”

Growing demand at a time of soaring prices is guaranteed to help redraw the map of which regions, Zip codes, and buildings are considered trustworthy assets. Don’t wait for the insurance markets to do it for you — visit www.climatealpha.ai to learn how our Climate Price™ analytics produces risk-adjusted forecasts down to individual assets. Every place has a climate price — what’s yours? 

#climaterisk #insurance #reinsurance

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Americans Are Moving Into Danger Zones

Americans “are flocking to fire,” declares a new study documenting their decades-long migration to areas increasingly prone to extreme heat and wildfires. The attraction of these areas is well understood, but perhaps ignorance of the risks is also to blame?

“They’re attracted by maybe a beautiful forested mountain landscape and lower housing costs somewhere in the wildland-urban interface,” the paper’s lead author, University of Vermont environmental scientist Mahalia Clark, told Wired. “But they’re just totally unaware that wildfire is something they should even think about. That’s not really something that the realtor is going to tell them about, or that’s going to be on the real estate listing.”

But as Climate Alpha and others have found, when Americans are presented with data demonstrating the risks, they will take action. Before turning to disincentives and even managed retreat, as the study’s authors suggest, we need better tools for illuminating climate risks and affordable housing in more resilient regions. That’s why Climate Alpha has developed our risk-adjusted valuations for real estate — including residential property out to 2040 — and is working with customers such as Lennar to identify the fastest-growing markets of tomorrow. Visit www.climatealpha.ai to learn more about how we transform risks into opportunities.

#climaterisk #wildfires #extremeheat #climateprice #wildlandurbaninterface

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Catastrophe Reinsurance Set to Soar After Year of Extreme Weather

Natural catastrophes caused an estimated $115 billion in 2022, according to the Swiss Re Institute, with $50-$65 billion of that from #HurricaneIan alone. That’s nearly 50% above the 10-year average of $81 billion, and part of a steady 5-7% rise in insurable losses each year acording to the Financial Times.

That means a lot of pain for reinsurers like Swiss Re, which cover the risk for the insurers themselves. And that, in turn, means the cost of property catastrophe insurance is set to go up next — way up. British investment bank Peel Hunt estimates the cost may rise 30% in 2023, while Lloyd’s of London parent Beazly believes it could soar as much as 50%. As a result, the market for reinsurance is grinding to a halt as reinsurers and brokers tussle in repricing risk, with Aon’s top reinsurance executive warning of “friction and uncertainty.”

Clearly, this is no longer business as usual. As the soaring cost of reinsurance ripples through property markets, real estate in Florida and elsewhere will be repriced in tandem, while more resilient regions will look increasingly attractive in turn.

Our tools help reinsurers and investors alike understand the new realities of resilient geographies and arrive at the “Climate Price.” Visit www.climatealpha.ai to learn more about how we can help you in the year ahead.

#climaterisk #creditrisk #reinsurance #riskmanagement #climateadaptation #catrisk

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Population Growth Is Making Hurricanes More Expensive

Why has the number of hurricanes causing $1 billion or more in damage more than doubled since the 1980s? And why has the total cost in damages risen eleven times?! The New York Times’ Ian Prasad Philbrick and Ashley Wu explore the “expanding bull’s-eye effect” — the tendency of population growth to make climate disasters costlier over time.

Coined by Villanova’s Steven Stader, the expanding bull’s-eye effect not only describes how urban sprawl makes regions more vulnerable to a mega-storm like #HurricaneIan, but also how development lessens the natural resilience of coastlines by transforming wetlands into impermeable asphalt.

The authors offer three potential solutions: mitigating greenhouse gas emissions; strengthening building codes; and encouraging migration away from high-risk areas. “But relocation is a tough sell,” they write. “Americans have flocked to Florida’s picturesque coast, despite its risks.”

They may not have that far to move. In our analysis of post-Ian Florida real estate trends, the Zip codes and counties poised to grow fastest in the next two decades are those farther from the coast. Read our analysis of how and why the smart money will escape the bull’s-eye.

#bullseyeeffect #climateadaptation #climaterisks #hurricanes

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How to Build a Better Future

#COP27 won’t save the world, Climate Alpha’s founder and CEO Dr. Parag Khanna writes for Semafor, and neither will any of its successors: “Every minute spent at such summits is therefore a distraction from the only two tangible activities that demonstrate genuine commitment to a better future: Moving people to resilient geographies or shifting technologies to people in need.”

The host of #COP28 — the United Arab Emirates — at least offers a glimpse of what such a future might look like:  “A melting pot in a melting geography, a mix of sea walls and air conditioning, the UAE is perhaps the foremost template for how more habitable regions will need to reprogram themselves into an archipelago of centers for our future civilization.”

This was the inspiration for Climate Alpha — creating the tools we’ll need to map humanity’s future. Click through to read more of Parag’s vision for tomorrow.

 #climateadaptation #climatemigration #resilientcommunities

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Can Cities Adapt to an Era of Extreme Heat?

As the northern hemisphere turns to winter, summer in the south half of the globe means another potentially devastating season of fires, drought, and extreme heat in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, Australia, and beyond. Cities feel the latter most acutely, as urban heat island effects raise temperatures higher than their hinterlands and retain it in concrete and asphalt at night.

In response, seven cities around the world — including Melbourne and Santiago de Chile — have named “chief heat officers” to advise mayors and other elected officials on  public education, heat mitigation, and urban redesigns. With support from the Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation’s Resilience Center — whose director Kathy Baughman-McLeod sits on Climate Alpha’s board — these heat officers are rethinking how urban governance should function in a future of climate change.

There’s always bureaucracy and red tape that makes things slower,” Athens mayor Kostas Bakoyannis told The Financial Times. “Also, the fact that we’re living with the legacy of the economic crisis . . . We’re trying to move as quickly as we can.”

Climate Alpha offers tools for public officials and private investors alike helping to steer investments in climate resilience and understanding heat-induced migration. Our Resilience Scores identify local strengths and weaknesses, while our Climate Price™ analytics platform forecasts migration patterns to account for future shifts to cooler climes. Visit www.climatealpha.ai to learn more about how we can help you prepare for a warming world.

#extremeheat #heatwaves #climateadaptation #megadrought

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9 in 10 Large Companies Have Assets Located in the Path of Climate Hazards

Nine in ten of the world’s largest companies have at least one asset exposed to climate risk, according to S&P, and more than one-third of those companies should expect that asset’s value to drop by 20 percent or more. But where are those assets? And over what time frame? Esri covered new data from S&P Global Sustainable1.

The geospatial information experts at Esri recommend combining spatial analytics with #GeoAI to understand the intersection of climate risks and business operations. “What are the revenue impacts of closing a store that’s vulnerable to wildfires?” Esri’s Alexander Martonik asks. “How will customer spending change if we move a distribution center out of a region with worsening hurricanes?”

These are the right questions, but answering them will not only require climate and business data, but also a fine-grained understanding of adaptation efforts — how will local public- and private actors move to mitigate those risks? That’s where Climate Alpha comes in, bringing its unique tools to bear in helping customers refine their geospatial analysis to account for human intervention. Visit Climate Alpha’s Product Suite to learn more about how our SaaS offerings can help refine and enrich geospatial forecasts of the future.

#realestate #climateadaptation #climaterisks #riskmanagement

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Hurricane Ian is proof: The US needs a national disaster safety board

The Hill discusses how five years after #HurricaneMaria devastated Puerto Rico and destroyed much of the island’s grid, #HurricaneFiona struck, leaving thousands without power. Was this disaster avoidable? Yes, say the founders of Disaster Researchers for Justice, calling on the U.S. Senate to authorize the creation of the National Disaster Safety Board — a new federal agency tasked with learning from climate disasters and recommending policies to ensure they don’t happen again.

“The proposed NDSB,” the founders write in an op-ed for The Hill, “offers the chance to leverage decades worth of data, human capital, and technology to inform its investigative work. In a time when our national risk is increasing due to decades of bad development decisions, centuries of discriminatory policy, and climate change the need to transform how we address disaster is more urgent than ever.”

Whether it be a new federal agency or more local institutions, mounting climate disasters underscore the necessity for governments to stop reacting and start proactively planning for the future. To that end, Climate Alpha has partnered with Mastercard’s City Possible to offer its suite of tools — including county-level resilience scores and its scenario forecaster — at a discount to public sector customers. Visit www.climatealpha.ai to learn more about how we can help you learn from past disasters and avoid the next one.

#climateadaptation #resilientcommunities #climaterisks 

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Amid historic drought, California approves $140 mln desalination plant – Reuters

We took a look at Reuters’ recent article on desalination efforts in California. The original article can be accessed here.

First, it was approved only five months after a much larger privately-owned plant was rejected, pointing toward a near-term future of smaller, more local water infrastructure — rather than drawing on rapidly-depleting sources such as the Colorado River. “It’s more nimble. The future is going to be all about modular solutions,” Berkeley’s Newsha Ajami told Reuters.

Second, it underscores how climate change is not a one-way street — cities and states have the capacity to adapt to a changing climate… if they choose to. Climate Alpha’s models account for human adaptation as well as climate projections to identify the regions and communities taking the future into their own hands. Visit www.climatealpha.ai to learn more about how we can help identify the places ready for tomorrow.

#climateadaptation #megadrought #watersecurity #climaterisks #infrastructure

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A Climate Crisis “Worse” Than the 1970’s?


“People have stupidly moved from New York to Miami and from San Francisco to Austin,” he continued. “But Florida’s going to be flooded and Texas is going to be too hot to survive there. So there’ll have to be a massive migration from south and the coastline towards the only part of the US that is going to survive climate change. It’s the Midwest into essentially Canada. So there’ll be trillions of dollars of real estate assets that are going to be damaged by essentially global climate change.”
 
Climate Alpha is proud to partner with Dr. Roubini’s firm Atlas Capital to create the first-of-its-kind Sustainable REIT Index™ offering risk-adjusted valuation for 200,000 REIT properties under multiple climate scenarios, ranking and clustering funds according to location, property type, and other metrics, with regular updates based on the latest market data
 
“Literally there are maps that show that half of the US in the next 20 years are going to be either underwater on the coastlines or too hot or droughts or wildfires, to be living in it,” Roubini told Odd Lots. At Climate Alpha, we’re making those maps. Visit Climate Alpha’s Products Page to learn more about how we can do the same for you.
 
#realestate #flooding #climateadaptation #climaterisks #creditrisk #drdoom #sustainablereits #climatemigration

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The Uninsurables: How Storms and Rising Seas are Making Coastlines Unliveable

The Guardian investigated the coastlines of Canada citing figures from the Insurance Bureau of Canada, a trade body, these 800,000 homes concentrated in the Atlantic Provinces and other coastal areas represent 90% of the Canadian insurance industry’s financial liability. In response, the industry is pushing for a federal government-run insurance scheme similar to the United States’ own troubled National Flood Insurance Program.

“The private market, on its own, cannot handle the level of risk that’s escalating in the system without some sort of formal government backstop or direct participation,” the IBC’s Craig Stewart told The Guardian. Over the last 15 years, for instance, insurance claims from severe weather events have quadrupled, including September’s Hurricane Fiona.

Climate change poses a clear and present danger to a Canadian housing market already under severe stress due to rising interest rates, underscoring how simple rules of thumb — Canada is inherently safer than south Florida — are not just wrong, but also dangerous. At Climate Alpha, our models include variables such as the overall health and structure of housing and insurance markets to create more accurate forecasts of risk and opportunities in the decades ahead. Visit Climate Alpha’s Products Page to learn more about what our tools can do for U.S. customers — and soon, our Canadian ones.

#realestate #flooding #climateadaptation #climaterisks #creditrisk

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Why Ian May Push Florida Real Estate Out of Reach for All but the Super Rich

The New York Times discusses how Hurricane Ian’s record breaking cost will make it even harder for many to get insurance — Florida’s insurance market faces collapse as FEMA and reinsurers alike reprice the risks and race premiums accordingly. The result might be a housing market in which homeownership is the sole preserve of those with deep enough pockets to buy a house in cash and pay to rebuild at any price.

“Ian’s aftermath shows how climate change is increasingly eroding the financial underpinnings of modern American life,” writes The New York Times‘ Christopher Flavelle. “Without insurance, banks won’t issue a mortgage; without a mortgage, most prospective homeowners can’t buy a home. With fewer buyers, home prices fall, and new development can slow or even come to a stop.”

While Florida has held out against this vicious circle for decades, past results do not guarantee future performance. At Climate Alpha, our suite of tools help homebuilders, developments, asset managers, and reinsurers — not to mention homeowners themselves — understand these risks and steer them to neighboring opportunities. Visit Climate Alpha’s Product Page to learn more about how we can help you understand when — and where — the American Dream is at risk… and where it’s thriving.

#realestate #flooding #climateadaptation #climaterisks#creditrisk #sustainablefinance

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A “race for higher ground”: A new study shows how climate gentrification is displacing vulnerable communities

A “race for higher ground” has already begun around Tampa and in South Florida, as new arrivals and local businesses displace residents in lower-income areas less prone to flooding. Fast Company’s Adele Peters reports on a new paper by Tulane University‘s Jesse M. Keenan and Columbia University’s Marco Tedesco offering a “climate gentrification risk index.”

“I think we need to start planning today about land use decisions and movements in the future instead of just letting the market haphazardly create the situation we have,” Keenan says. “What we’ve learned here is that we need to be mindful of where these conflicts are arising today and tomorrow.”

Don’t wait. Our suite of tools — including our proprietary Resilience Index scores and scenario forecaster — can help governments identify gentrification hotspots now while steering investors and developers toward less obvious opportunities to adapt and build. Visit www.climatealpha.ai to learn more about how we can help you win the race for higher ground — before it’s even run.

#climategentrification #climatemigration #higherground #climaterisks

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The U.S. is Running Short of Land for Housing

Improbably, America is running out of land. Developable land, that is.

“Land-use restrictions and a lack of public investment in roads, rail and other infrastructure have made it harder than ever for developers to find sites near big population centers to build homes,” writes Konrad Putzier in The Wall Street Journal. “As people keep moving to cities such as Austin, Phoenix and Tampa, they are pushing up the price of dirt and making the housing shortages in these fast-growing areas even worse.”

Vacant land prices in the Sun Belt have more than doubled in the last two years, even as Austin and Phoenix are becoming markedly hotter and Tampa lies squarely in the path of #HurricaneIan — potentially the worst storm to strike the city in a century.

Torn between the need for land in fast-growing regions and valuations that don’t take climate change into account, developers risk paying a premium today for discounted locations tomorrow. Fortunately, Climate Alpha combines climate, demographic, and economic data for a 360-degree view of the most desirable locations in 2040 and every year in between. Visit Climate Alpha’s Products Page to learn more before it’s gone.

#resilientcommunities #extremeheat #megadrought #climateadaptation #zoomtowns #climatemigration

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Billions in Climate Deal Funding – What it Means for U.S. Coastal Cities

The #inflationreductionact earmarks $2.6 billion for “#greeninfrastructure” — nature-based solutions for coastline- and habitat protection and restoration — which offers a markedly different approach to traditional engineering-based “gray infrastructure.” Advocates for this approach argue it is more cost-effective and sustainable than building levees or seawalls requiring continual maintenance. The New York Times reports on how hopeful communities look forward to programs that emphasize nature-based solutions

“You are seeing a lot more attention and acceptance of greener options,” Charles Lester, director of the Ocean and Coastal Policy Center at UC Santa Barbara told The New York Times‘ Stephanie Lai. “It’s a spectrum of ways of responding to shoreline change, and this funding is causing us to think more completely and more holistically about all the different pieces of these puzzles.”

This is only one example of how climate models aren’t destiny. The future is a policy choice — where and how we choose to invest in climate #resilience and #adaptation changes its possible trajectories. That’s why Climate Alpha incorporate #demographics#infrastructure, and other socio-economic variables in forecasting tomorrow’s resilient geographies. Visit Climate Alpha’s Product Suite to learn more about we’re incorporating human agency into our scenarios of the future.

#resilientcommunities #climaterisks #climateadaptation #sealevelrise

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The U.S. is Teetering on the Brink of Large Water Crisis

The #climatecrisis is more complex than any single model can capture. For instance, the #megadrought gripping the West for the last two decades has caused the Colorado River to wither, causing the U.S. government to demand neighboring states cut their water usage by as much as 40%. But it gets worse.

As the Global Institute for Water Security (GIWS)‘s Jay Famiglietti illuminates in this interview with ProPublica‘s Abrahm Lustgarten, the peril to American agriculture is even greater than one might imagine, as farmers shift consumption from surface water to groundwater, accelerating aquifer depletion.

“I don’t want to be flippant,” Famiglietti says, “but people don’t understand the food-water nexus. Do we try to bring more water to the southern high plains, to Arizona, to California, because if the food system’s optimized, maybe that’s the cheapest thing to do? Or does agriculture move to where the water is? Does it migrate north and east?”

Climate models can’t answer that question. Climate Alpha can. Our scenario forecaster allows customers to explore the potential implications of these kinds of feedback loops. Visit www.climatealpha.ai to learn more.

#extremeheat #climaterisks #climateadaptation #watersecurity #climatemigration

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Cities Brace for This Season’s Colliding Climate Disasters

Bloomberg News Article on climate disasters has identified May to October as the “danger season” — when the US is most at risk of experiencing back-to-back climate disasters like heat waves, wildfires, drought and storms.

The real danger isn’t an isolated wildfire, heat wave or flood — but mounting, overlapping disasters that diminish the capacity to respond. For example, Bloomberg News CityLab’s Linda Poon notes that since May, 116 U.S. counties were under multiple alerts from the National Weather service, of which nearly three-quarters had concurrent heat + heat alerts, while 18 others faced flood + heat and another 15 counties had fire + flood.

While other tools can identify a region’s vulnerability to a single climate, our analysis platform at Climate Alpha is able to gauge resilience against multiple threats in light of multiple demographic and economic scenarios — helping make danger season a little less dangerous. Visit us at Climate Alpha’s Product Solutions to learn more.

#extremeheat #megadrought #hurricaneseason2022 #climaterisks #climateadaptation

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The “Zoom Revolution” enriched Jackson Hole. But What About Buffalo?

The Washington Post’s opinion article on Zoom towns contrasts the diverging fortunes of Jackson Hole, WY and Buffalo, NY in an era of “Zoomtowns” and remote work. While the former has seen an influx of workers trading urban life for majestic terrain (and soaring home prices), the aspiring “climate haven” on Lake Erie awaits its Renaissance.

But that could change, McArdle argues: “The Mountain West and the Sun Belt could probably do with less competition for scarce water, and the prosperous coastal cities would be better off with fewer people to house since they refuse to allow enough building to let supply meet demand.”

Any number of small cities have been touted as Zoomtowns. But which will offer the essential combination of affordability, job creation, and climate resilience? Don’t just speculate. We can tell you. Visit our Website at www.climatealpha.ai to learn more.

#zoomtowns #remotework #climatemigration #climateadaptation #realestate

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