Hurricanes are generally poised to strike New York and neighboring states more often as storms track northward, according to the latest projections from the First Street Foundation. The non-profit estimates annual damages from high winds will increase by $1.5 billion to nearly $20 billion in 2053, with the large majority of damages remaining concentrated in Florida.

But the Mid-Atlantic will see the largest increase in maximum wind speeds — with some gusts 37 mph — while the Northeast is expected to see the highest spike in damages (87%). The top five counties by % increase in annual losses include both region: Brooklyn (Kings, NY); Nassau, NY; Monmouth, NJ; Newport News, VA; and York, VA.

That’s the bad news; the good news is that each of these counties has the resources to adapt. According to Climate Alpha’s scenario forecaster, four of the five counties are projected to shave less than 1% from their appreciation forecasts under even the worst scenario (RCP8.5) through 2040. (The exception is Brooklyn, with a 7.5% shortfall in appreciation.)

The takeaway? It’s critical to weight climate risks in context. Visit www.climatealpha.ai to sign up for a free account to see which way — and how hard — tomorrow’s wind is blowing.

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